Google famously experimented with internal prediction markets to forecast project timelines, product outcomes, and business metrics. The point was not to gamble, but to improve organizational forecasting and decision-making.
What It Was
An internal market is a private market inside a company where employees trade on questions that matter to execution and planning. Google used this approach as an experiment to reduce bias and surface hidden information.
What It Forecasted
Typical internal questions include:
- Will feature X launch by date Y?
- Will a target metric be met this quarter?
- Will a project slip due to dependencies?
These are hard to forecast in meetings because incentives often favor optimism or politics.
Why It Matters
Google’s use case became a flagship example for corporate prediction markets:
- It highlighted that information is distributed across teams.
- It showed markets can surface risk earlier than status reporting.
- It supported the idea that internal markets are decision tools, not entertainment.
Lessons for Modern Platforms
- Participation and incentives are more important than fancy mechanics.
- Anonymity can improve honesty.
- Clear resolution rules are essential to keep trust.
Key Takeaways
- Internal markets are a forecasting instrument for execution risk.
- They work best with clear, measurable questions and real incentives.
- The main enemy is not math, it is organizational incentives and fear.